Conservative assumptions with significant upside potential
WIOA-Funded Training Model: $864K net annually by Year 2 — before a single glamping guest checks in
Year 1 Revenue: $357,000 (Farmer training ramp — Day 1, no construction needed)
Year 2 Revenue: $1,238,000 (Training at full WIOA capacity + glamping opens)
Year 3 Stabilized Revenue: $1,449,000 (All 8 streams fully operational)
Year 3 Net Operating Income: $1,251,000
Traditional ROI: 75.9% (Year 3) — beats S&P 500 by 7.5×
With Conservative Grants: 192.8%+ ROI
* Training revenue shown net of $270K/yr operating costs. Gross WIOA tuition: $567K (Year 1, 90 students) → $1,134,000 (Year 2+, 180 students)
The old direct-tuition model ($2,500/student) yielded $155K/year.
The WIOA Individual Training Account model pays up to $7,000 per enrolled student — funded by CareerSource Escarosa, not the student.
180 enrolled students × $6,300 blended average = $1,134,000 gross tuition per year
Minus $270,000 operating costs = $864,000 net — 3× the original entire property revenue projection.
* Farmer Training shown net of $270K annual operating expenses. All other streams shown gross.
| Revenue Stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Farmer Training Facility ⭐ WIOA Net after $270K opex | Gross: $567K Y1, $1,134K Y2+ |
$297,000 | $864,000 | $864,000 | $990,000 | $1,096,000 |
| 2. Tiny Homes + Spa | $0 | $252,000 | $420,000 | $441,000 | $463,000 |
| 3. Events & Weddings | $0 | $45,000 | $75,000 | $82,500 | $90,000 |
| 4. UWF Partnership | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 |
| 5. CRP Conservation | $20,000 | $20,000 | $20,000 | $20,000 | $20,000 |
| 6. Agrotourism | $0 | $10,000 | $18,000 | $20,000 | $22,000 |
| 7. Research Fees | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 |
| 8. Farm-to-Table | $0 | $7,000 | $12,000 | $13,000 | $14,000 |
| TOTAL NET REVENUE | $357,000 | $1,238,000 | $1,449,000 | $1,606,500 | $1,745,000 |
Months 1-12: Existing 2,500 SF house becomes WIOA-approved training center immediately
Year 1 net: $297,000 (2 cohorts × 45 students at $6,300 blended average)
Gross WIOA tuition collected: $567,000 before operating expenses
Meanwhile: Tiny homes built with grant funding — $450K construction covered by grant stack
Advantage: Generate $297K net WHILE building. Most projects earn $0 during their construction year.
Training opex ($270K) already subtracted from training revenue row above. Table shows remaining property-level expenses only.
| Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Net Revenue | $357,000 | $1,238,000 | $1,449,000 | $1,606,500 | $1,745,000 |
| Glamping OpEx (34%) | $0 | $85,680 | $142,800 | $149,940 | $157,420 |
| Events & Other OpEx | $0 | $20,000 | $35,000 | $38,000 | $41,000 |
| Property Overhead | $15,000 | $18,320 | $20,200 | $22,060 | $23,580 |
| NET OPERATING INCOME | $342,000 | $1,114,000 | $1,251,000 | $1,396,500 | $1,523,000 |
WIOA Training Is Self-Funding: ITA tuition pays 100% of instructors, materials, admin, insurance, and facilities ($270K). Operating costs are a non-issue — the model funds itself, then produces $864K net surplus.
Glamping Industry Standard: 30-40% operating expenses is typical for quality glamping. We project 34% — conservative and in the middle of the range.
Passive streams (UWF, CRP, Research): $60K/year from Day 1 with near-zero overhead — pure margin.
| Scenario | Net Investment | Year 3 NOI | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional (No Grants) | $1,649,000 | $1,251,000 | 75.9% |
| Conservative ($1M Grants) | $649,000 | $1,251,000 | 192.8% |
| Moderate ($2.5M Grants) | $0 | $1,251,000 | INFINITE |
| Aggressive ($4.1M Grants) | −$2,451,000 | $1,251,000 | ∞ + $2.45M Cash |
75.9% Traditional ROI beats the S&P 500 (10%) by 7.5× and traditional real estate (6-8%) by 9-12×
192.8% with Conservative Grants means you nearly triple your money in Year 3
INFINITE with Moderate Grants means grants cover 100% of investment — you need zero net capital
PAID $2.45M with Aggressive Grants means the grant stack exceeds all costs before the first guest arrives
At a 9% capitalization rate on Year 3 NOI of $1,251,000:
$13,900,000 — income-based property value
Total purchase + development cost: $1,649,000
You're acquiring a $13.9M income-producing asset for $1.65M — an 88% discount from stabilized value.
Revenue: ~$94,500 net (first cohort underway)
Revenue: $94,500 net (second cohort running)
Revenue: $60,000 (passive streams + inter-session admin)
Revenue: $108,000 (passive + soft-open bookings)
✓ Farmer Training: We project $864K net but WIOA capacity can scale to $1.1M+ as enrollment grows
✓ WIOA ITAs: $7K cap; many students qualify for the full amount — blended avg could reach $6,600+
✓ Occupancy: 77% is above average, but this property's dual-trail access + full spa justifies 80-85%
✓ Pricing: $225/night is conservative — Getaway House and AutoCamp charge $300-$500/night
✓ Events: 15-20 events/year is modest — venue could host 30+ with dedicated event staff
✓ Grants: Conservative stack is $4.1M but realistic 5-year total is $10.8M
✓ Training grants: $245K-$495K/year in BFRDP, FCDP, 2501 funds not included in NOI table — pure additional surplus
$357K
Year 1 Net Revenue (Day 1 launch)
$864K
Training Net (Year 2 — before glamping)
$1.449M
Year 3 Stabilized Revenue (8 streams)
$1.251M
Year 3 Net Operating Income
75.9%
Traditional ROI (beats S&P by 7.5×)
193-∞%
Grant-Adjusted ROI
The WIOA Advantage: CareerSource Escarosa pays up to $7,000 per enrolled student — not the student, not you. 180 students per year turns the existing house into a $864K/year net income engine while the grant-funded retreat is being built. This property generates more net income from training alone than most glamping properties generate in total revenue.